At least seven transitions, or important successions, of national significance are taking place in the country, within the arenas of human rights, the church, the political parties, in the governments, in education and in the economy. Our hypothesis is that these transitions could qualitatively affect the electoral transition and the subsequent presidential term of 2000 - 20006.

While the month of March was noted for breaking the siege of democracy through the National Consultation convened by the EZLN, August for authoritarianism and militarization, the month of November of 1999 can be characterized by the following transitions:

1) National Human Rights Commission (CNDH): One of the most important arenas for the denunciation and halting of human rights violations is currently at stake. These violations - systematic and on the rise - have been taking place concomitant with the proliferation of civil groups, which have been emerging in order to protest against, and to defend themselves from, the abuses of government power. These abuses have been increasing in violence as the government has been losing the support of the populace.

The platform for denunciation and the application of political pressure was previously, for many organizations, the scene of the San Andrés dialogues between the EZLN and the federal government. Now, civil human rights bodies in the counties are waging a battle against impunity and injustice, in the midst of a growing wave of harassment against them, such as the one recently suffered by the Miguel Agustín Pro Human Rights Center in Mexico City. And it would appear that they have hit a nerve, since harassment is the measure of the organizations' effectiveness against the regime that wishes to perpetuate impunity.

Prestigious international organizations, such as Amnesty International and the InterAmerican Human Rights Commission (CIDH), among many others, have also been the victims of the Mexican government's deaf ears in the face of their recommendations and observations concerning human rights violations. These violations have been especially prolific since 1994. These circumstances led to a recent visit by the UN Special Relator for Extrajudicial, Summary and Arbitrary Execution. Currently, during this month of November, two important events are taking place regarding this matter: the second visit by the International Human Rights Observers Commission (CCIODH), and the visit by Mary Robinson, High Commissioner for the United Nations for Human Rights. Government reactions to these visits will be obvious: denial of militarization, of the existence of paramilitary groups, of violence and torture. And, on the other hand, the exquisite willingness to make progress towards peace and democracy.

There is a third link necessary in order to contain, on another front, the state's impunity, so that national and international civil society might be joined by another body in its safeguarding of human rights: the CNDH. The recent change in that official body's leadership - previously Mireille Roccatti - is especially significant. Civil organizations, and society as a whole, had hoped that the succession would demand a different role be played by that body than the one it had previously played. It has been the subject of strong criticism, and there have been demands that it take a more active role, less submissive to the government and less fearful of the Mexican Army.

From this perspective, the CNDH, in the face of the year 2000 election, of the growing process of militarization in the country and of the increase in human rights violations, could cease to be a bastion of refuge for government and military impunity. This is the reason for its importance, allowing one to predict that the government will manage to wrest control of the nomination.

2) Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI): The allegedly democratic process to choose their candidate for the presidency of the Republic on November 7 - and which led to the victory, to the surprise of many, of the official candidate, Francisco Labastida Ochoa - apparently strengthened the party. Labastida Ochoa was formerly the Secretary of Government, and he promoted domestic policies that were police-oriented, very repressive and militarized. Two basic elements seemed to be present: that millions of Mexicans not only overcame the historic abstention, but they also voted for the PRI. And, on the other hand, that so many millions of Mexicans approve of the economic policies of the current president, as well as of the actions taken by Labastida while conducting domestic policies during his term as Secretary of Government.

The PRI candidates accused each other of things which - from a moral, ethical and legal perspective - would prevent their being nominated for the presidency of the Republic by the official party (corruption, lies, fraud, campaign illegalities, etc.). Discipline and denial can, however, be negotiated even from prison, and the danger of becoming a scapegoat during the next administration exists if any loser were seen as being against the regime.

The PRIs have now created a virtual bubble, not only to keep themselves in power, but also in order to sell themselves on the idea that support for them has suddenly grown throughout the country. They projected, by magic, that there would be 10 million votes cast in the country, and, oddly, those votes turned up in the ballot boxes. Many empty boxes, and very little participation in the population were able - through the magic of television and radio at their service, and with many visual tricks -to make a party's internal processes appear to be the elections of all of Mexico. If the state apparatus and the official party have been capable of so much electoral fraud in the country, how will they then be able to respect each other and to not commit fraud in support of the official candidate? Regardless, the consequences of the conflicts that this internal process created nationally, as well as in Chiapas, were able to silence and conceal many things. History, however, will, sooner or later, collect its due.

3) National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM): Rector Barnes de Castro resigned and was replaced by Dr. de la Fuente, who was had been the head of the Department of Health. On the issue of privatizations, neither the proposal for privatizing electric energy, nor the one for historic monuments - among them the Mayan ruins - have taken up as much discussion space in the media, nor have they seen so much mobilization by various sectors, as has the privatization of education, a problem made manifest through the UNAM strike.

The problem has reached Chiapas not only through the EZLN's having entered the discussion, debate and support for the student movement. University students have also gone to the Selva Lacandona in order to meet with the zapatistas. The privatization issue has also brought thousands of teachers in Chiapas into the streets, expressing their opposition to the "educational revolution" proposed by the interim governor, Roberto Albores. The teachers argue that the foundations are being laid for the privatization of education in the state. And so the interim governor, for the first time, and in public, agreed to suspend an initiative, like this "educational revolution" one, until the support of the population is achieved, and in order to avoid creating anger. In reality, however, his decision took place within the context of rumors of his dismissal, which could put an end to his political career.

Not only have the zapatistas, the public and those students not in class been involved in the UNAM strike, but so has the Mexican City government, governed by the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). They have been heavily pressured to apply repressive measures in order to resolve the conflict. Many of that government's leaders were victims of the military incursion into the UNAM in 1968. Those same leaders are now being pressured to use force against this generation of students, which could lead to the loss of an important group of voters, who have been their allies and supporters: the students.

The strike, which has now been going on for more than half a year in the highest educational setting in the land - and the alleged privatization of education - are events which could have very serious consequences for the country. The university rector has changed, but not necessarily the political will to resolve the conflict, since, once again, the federal government's interests are present, through someone who was once a member of the presidential cabinet.

4) The Government of Chiapas: The interim governor, Roberto Albores Guillén, was at the point of being dismissed. His government's illegitimacy and his lack of support came to haunt him. State congresspersons from the same political party managed to achieve what opposition parties and social organizations had not: driving him to the brink of the chasm, when a group of them demanded his resignation, and even a political judgment against him. Roberto Albores then put pressure on the same PRI's, including threats, for every member of the PRI to support the official candidate for the presidency of the Republic, Francisco Labastida Ochoa.

There was a high degree of tension for several days over the possible and imminent dismissal of the interim governor, who brought taxi drivers out into the streets in several cities in Chiapas in order to back him. Inside the PRI in Chiapas, the "Free for the Free Word" wing emerged, calling for democracy inside the official party. The PRI's, however, still have the chameleon-like ability to transform themselves, discipline themselves and put those political benefits - which they have been granted by so many years in power - in the forefront. As well as the perpetuity of impunity.

Regardless, the seeds of discord have now been sown inside the party, and the consequences of this situation have not yet ended. Governor Albores is under the gun not only from opposition parties, social organizations and many sectors of civil society, at both state and national levels, who are calling for his dismissal and a political judgment against him, but also from inside his own party. In order to rebuild his damaged reputation, one of the consequences of this conflict has been an increase in publicity concerning the social programs he is supposedly heading for the good of the chiapanecos.

5) Diocese of San Cristóbal de Las Casas: Bishop Samuel Ruiz García presented his resignation from the Diocese to the Vatican when he reached the age of 75 on November 3. It will not be effective until it is accepted by the Pope. Meanwhile, pressures against Coadjutant Bishop Raúl Vera López heading the Diocese are being widely discussed.

The Diocese is aware that, for the federal government and the Mexican Army, the role they have played in Chiapas represents a national security issue. And how could this not be, given that conscience, dignity and the demands for the most elemental human rights being claimed by the indigenous require the presence of 70,000 soldiers in Chiapas. The Diocese will continue to play a fundamental role in the lives of the indigenous peoples. The bishops are now, in November, signing the conclusive results of the Third Diocesan Synod. The promotion of the pastoral lines being sketched by the church for the poor, which have emerged in the Synod, will be the strategy that orients this Diocese's path for many years. Consequently, a young bishop, who could accompany this process for at least the next 20 years, would become even more of a concern for a government who is trying to increasingly militarize the indigenous communities.

This transition has not ended yet either. Bishop Samuel Ruiz has still not left the diocese, and the Coadjutant Bishop, Raúl Vera López, is still not the titular head of this prophetic church. This situation is similar to a ball suspended in the air, in a vacuum, running the risk of its veering off in any direction whatsoever.

6) Globalization and the Neoliberal Program: Globalization of the markets is playing a waiting game with democracy. Social discontent, the loss of support for governments, poverty, and the small but great spaces won - or which could be won - by opposition parties in scaling the democratic structures of the State (municipal and state government, Deputy and Senate seats): all of this is speeding up commercial agreements.

Some time ago it had been expected that the implementation of the commercial accord between the European Union and Mexico, and of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (ALCA), would be a longer process than it has been. It had even been proposed that it would be 2007 - in the following presidential term of 2007 - 2012 - before commerce would find Mexico's borders more free for the application of the agreements.

And so, at least three events will occur in November of extreme importance for the world economy: the signing of the commercial accord between the European Union and Mexico; the meeting of businesspersons and 34 governments from Latin America and the Caribbean, within the framework of the ALCA in Toronto, Canada; and the World Trade Organization meeting (WTO) in Seattle, in the United States, the setting to which the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCDE) managed to move discussion concerning many aspects of the Multilateral Investment Agreement (AMI) (see "Chiapas al Día" Bulletin No. 109).

The process has been moved up to the presidential term of 2000 - 2006. It is expected that PRI senators in the Senate of the Republic - while it is still has a majority from the official party - will finalize the approval of free trade with the European Union during the next session of the Congress of the Union, which will take place during the first half of 2000, a few weeks prior to the presidential and congressional elections. Meanwhile, the ALCA is expected to be operational by 2005.

7) The Government of Mexico City: The Federal District plays a fundamental role in the country in terms of its centralist role in our politics and in our economy. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas resigned two months ago as head of the Mexico City government, in order to run as a candidate for the presidency of the Republic for the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and for the Labor Party (PT).

The parties will choose their candidates for the elections of the head of the Government of Mexico City this month. The PRD, the first party to govern the city, is being forced to defend their place in the midst of the continuing onslaught by business and by the federal government and their media. Mexico City could propose a political scenario that would lay the foundations for a new relationship between government and society. Or they could continue offering refuge for political favors, corruption, presidentialism and the militarization of the police forces.

We could say that transition periods, by definition, are marked by confusion, since the results and consequences of such a political movement cannot be immediately seen, either in the mid or long term. The reaccomodations of power groups and new alliances are being woven according to the progress, backward steps and ebbs of the actors, or the emergence of new ones, within national life. Such has been the student movement, until the new range of opposition parties who, oddly, include the concept of "democracy" in their initials.

In 2000, there will be elections in 4 fundamental pillars of the country's democratic electoral life: for the Presidency of the Republic, for the Governor of Chiapas, for the Congress of the Republic and for the Mexico City government. What will they bring for the country over the next six years? These seven transitions, seven levels, seven arenas, will impact, from any point of view, for good or for bad, in these processes of 2000.

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