There were 37 603 855 citizens who voted in the past federal elections. This number represents 63.97% of the nominal list of 58 782 737 Mexicans. There were 32 455 people who put the name of an unregistered candidate; another 789 828 people opted to nullify their vote or marked their ballot incorrectly. The total number of valid ballots cast was 36 814 027.

Between 1994 and 2000, the electoral census increased by 25%; this equals another 12 million voters in the country. The votes for the PRI in the country decreased from 51% in 1997 to 42.2% in these elections. The PAN rose from 16% to 35.5%. The PRD increased from 13.15% to 22%.

THE PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC

Vicente Fox, of the Alianza para el Cambio (which is made up of an alliance between the PAN and the PVEM), obtained 15 988 725 votes (43.43%). He was followed by Francisco Labastida Ochoa from the PRI with 13 544 368 votes (36.88%) and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas Solórzano of the Alianza por México with 6 259 012 votes (16.44%).

Gilberto Rincón Gallardo of the PDS received 592 072 votes (1.61%); Manuel Camacho Solís of the PCD got 208 258 votes (0.57%). In last place, with 157 119 votes (0.43%), was the PARM, which had a non-existent candidate since the ex-PRI member, ex-PRD member and now ex-PARM member, Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, renounced his candidacy days before the election to join the campaign of Vicente Fox.

Vicente Fox won the majority of the presidential votes in 20 of the 32 states in the country (or 62.5% of the states). This number included the Federal District. The states in which he received the majority were: Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua, the Federal District, Guanajuato, Jalisco, the state of México, Morelos, Nuevo León, Puebla, Querétaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Yucatán.

Francisco Labastida received the majority in 11 states (34.3% of the states in the country): Campeche, Chiapas, Durango, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas obtained the majority of votes in his home state of Michoacán and came in second in the states of Guerrero, Tabasco, and the Federal District.

The election results can be analyzed from other points of view. According to the presidential election results, the state that is the biggest PRI supporter is Sinaloa (63.87%). It is also the least supportive, after Guerrero, of the PAN; and, it is the state where Fox paid the most visits to its governor. The state that is most supportive of the PAN is Guanajuato (60. 75%). The most supportive of the PRD is Michoacán (37.14%). The state with the least level of PRI support is the Federal District (24.01%). The least PAN is Guerrero (18.56%). The least PRD is Yucatán (3.9%). The state from the South and South-Southeast which is most supportive of the PRD is Guerrero (35.21%); while the least supportive of the PRD are Yucatán and Puebla (3.9% and 12.11%, respectively).

The state with the highest abstention rate was Chiapas with 52.19%. The highest level of participation was in Yucatán (with 75.95% turn out). The PRI and the PAN disputed the vote in Yucatán, where the PAN won by one percentage point (46.08% and 47.09%, respectively).

The percentage of presidential votes received by the PAN ranged from 60.75% of the votes in Guanajuato to the other extreme of 18.56% in Guerrero (the state where it received the least votes). It obtained more than 50% of the votes in five states; in order of magnitude, these are: Guanajuato, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Querétaro and Sonora. The states where it had between 40 and 50% of the votes were (in order of numbers): Baja California, Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Colima, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas, Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Morelos, México, the Federal District, Puebla, Durango, and Campeche. The states where it received between 30 to 40% were: Veracruz, Baja California Sur, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Zacatecas, and Nayarit. Between 18.56% and 30% were obtained in: Michoacán, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Sinaloa and Guerrero. Thus, the three poorest states in the country, Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca, are also the states in which the PAN is least established.

In the case of the PRI, the number of votes it received ranged from 63.87% of the vote in Sinaloa to 24.01% in the Federal District. Sinaloa is the only state where the PRI was preferred by more than 50% of the voters. In the 40-50% range were: Nayarit, Yucatán, Durango, Hidalgo, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chihuahua, Campeche, Puebla, Tamaulipas, and Nuevo León. In the range between 30-40% were: Tabasco, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Veracruz, Baja California, Colima, Tlaxcala, Jalisco, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, Sonora, Baja California Sur, Quintana Roo, México, Morelos, and Michoacán. Only in the states of Guanajuato and the Federal District did the PRI receive less than 30% of the votes.

For the PRD, the number of presidential votes it received ranged from 37% in Michoacán to 3.90% in Yucatán. Among the states in which it won between 30-40% were: Michoacán, Guerrero and Tabasco. In the 20-30% range were (in descending order): Baja California Sur, Federal District, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas. Between 10-20% were: Morelos, México, Veracruz, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, Hidalgo, Campeche, Sonora, Puebla, Colima and Durango. States where it received less than 10% of the votes were: Coahuila, Sinaloa, Baja California, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Nuevo León, Jalisco, and Yucatán. The PRD obtained a higher percentage of votes in Baja California Sur than in the Federal District, where it actually governs and where its candidate, Manuel López Obrador, recently won the mayorship.

THE CONGRESS OF THE UNION

For the Chamber of the Senators (with 128 senators in total), the PRI obtained 60 positions (it had 77 senators before July 2nd); the PAN got 46 (it had 40), 15 for the PRD (it had 22), 5 for the PVEM, one for the PT and one for the Convergencia Democrática. In the Chamber of the Deputies (composed of 55 deputies), the PRI obtained 209 deputyships (it had 239), the PAN got 208 (it had 117), 52 for the PRD (which had 126), 15 for the PVEM, 8 for the PT, 3 for the Convergencia Democrática, 3 for the PSN, and 2 for the PAS.

In terms of the election for federal deputies, the Alianza por el Cambio obtained all of the districts in two states: Aguascalientes and Baja California. The PRI won all of the districts in 4 states: Tlaxcala, Nayarit, Campeche, and Hidalgo. The Alianza por México won only in a higher number of districts in 12 states.

The PRI won more districts in the states of Veracruz, Chiapas, the State of México, Oaxaca and Guerrero. In the Federal District it did not win a single district, but at the moment maintains a majority in 21 local congresses and has 21 governors.

Traditionally, the safety valve for the system was found in the guarantee of an alliance between the PRI and the PAN in the Congress of the Union. This is now reinforced by the drastic decrease in the left; an alliance of the PRI and the PAN in the Chamber of the Senators will amount to 106 votes versus 22 votes for the other parties. In the Chamber of the Deputies, the alliance will add up to 417 votes versus the 83 for the other political parties. Nonetheless, the defeat of the PRI, the new change in the presidential power and the new position of all the parties in the Congress, could alter this correlation. For example, the proposal by Vicente Fox to tax food and medicine apparently will now be attacked by the PRI.

For the PRI, the defeat signifies many changes. The party is divided into various internal factions. Some demand the renunciation of the national leadership including its own President Ernesto Zedillo. Other groups fight over the direction of the party. The puppet without a head is looking for a leadership; now both the PRI governors and former national leaders want to occupy the position. Discussions on the inside have included suggesting the need to change the name of the party. It has already had three names: Partido Nacional Revolucionario in 1929, Partido de la Revolución Mexicana in 1938, and the Partido Revolucionario Institucional in 1946. However, the so-called ‘dinosaurs’ of the PRI, the old PRI members, continue to live as the “New PRI”. Now they head, without campaigning and despite the presidential defeat, the posts of deputies and senators.

The PAN is also living through internal difficulties; it is attempting to define its position before its candidate that won the presidency. Vicente Fox has declared that he will not govern the PAN, which means that there will not be the possibility of following the presidential line for voting in the Congress. The PRD also confronts strong divisions with some groups blaming the national leadership for the loss to the extent that they demand its resignation.

THE CHANGES IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL LAWS

According to the Comisión Nacional de Derechos Humanos (CNDH) (National Commission for Human Rights), in 79 years (from July 8, 1921 to April 7, 2000), the Political Constitution of Mexico of 1917 has suffered 406 modifications, derogations, reforms, and additions.

Venustiano Carranza, the first post-revolutionary president, did not modify the constitution at all. But, the following 16 presidents of the Republic, starting with Alvaro Obregón in 1921, began to modify it. Of all of them, the last three presidential terms, each characterized by neoliberal politics and together signifying only 18 of the 79 years (or 22.78% of the period), have seen 43.53% of the changes to constitutional laws (193 modifications).

Of these three presidential periods, only President Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000) made 74 changes (18.22% of the total number of changes in only 7.59% of the time since 1921). It is in this period that negotiations for free trade with about 40 countries were carried out (see Bulletin “Chiapas al Día” No. 198). From there, follows the 65 modifications made by Miguel de la Madrid, 54 by Carlos Salinas de Gortari, 40 de Luis Echeverría Alvarez, 34 by José López Portillo, 22 by Abelardo L. Rodríguez, 20 by Miguel Alemán Valdés, 19 by Gustavo Díaz Ordaz, 18 by Plutarco Elías Calles, 18 by Manuel Avila Camacho, 15 by Lázaro Cárdenas, 11 by Adolfo López Mateos, 8 by Alvaro Obregón, 4 by Pascual Ortiz Rubio, 2 by Emilio Portes Gil, and 2 by Adolfo Ruiz Cortines.

The Political Constitution, the basic laws of the country and for all Mexicans, is composed of 136 articles (with another 19 temporary ones). Two thirds of it (69.11%) has been modified by reforms, additions or derogations. This equals 94 articles that have been modified. They are: 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, 35, 36, 37, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 61, 63, 65, 66, 67, 69, 70, 72, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 82, 83, 84, 85, 88, 89, 90, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, ,112, 113, ,114, 115, 116, 117, 119, 122, 123, 127, 130, 131, 134, 135.

These articles refer to the following matters and themes: the right to education; the multicultural composition of Mexico; equality before the law and the right to health, housing and work; the right to freedom of ideas; the carrying of arms; integrity of the person, family, and domicile; the administration of justice, prison, and detention; prohibitions against torture and other violations of human rights; religious freedom, development and national planning; ownership of the land, natural resources and borders of the Nation; strategic areas, business, and the conception of the monopoly of the state; Mexican nationality; the obligations and rights of Mexicans and Mexican citizens; National Sovereignty; the form of Government; the Integral Parts of the Federation; the National Territory; and the division of Powers.

Other articles that have been modified refer to the role, function, installation, election, composition, and powers of the Congress of the Union (deputies and senators) as well as mechanisms for modifying constitutional laws. Of them all, the article that has suffered the most modifications is article 77, which has undergone 44 changes and refers to the powers of Congress.

Other modified articles refer to the powers and obligations of the Executive Power and requirements for being President; as well as to the Free Municipalities, the public power of the states and of the Federal District; work and the social forecast; Church-State relations; as well as importing and exporting. It is worth noting that all of the articles referring to the Judicial Power of the Nation and the Responsibilities of Public Servants have been modified.

Article 135 of the constitution reads as follows: “The present Constitution can be added to or reformed. In order for the additions or reforms to become part of the same, it is required that the Congress of the Union, by a vote of two thirds of all individuals present, agree to the reforms or additions, and that these are approved by the majority of State legislatures. The Congress of the Union or the Permanent Commission, will do the count of the votes of the Legislatures and make the declaration of the additions or reforms having been approved.”

THE SIGNS OF THE NEW PRESIDENTIAL TERM

An important discussion in the country revolves around whether or not Vicente Fox will be the fourth neoliberal government; or, whether he will be the first in a grand democratic transition in Mexico. For his part, Fox denies being a neoliberal, including managing to define himself as center-left. However, it will be important to make the distinction between a political project, an economic project and a military one.

We are in a period of change in presidential power that will concretize on December 1, when Vicente Fox takes command of the nation. And, we are now observing signs that do not make us worry any less.

Vicente Fox denounced the PRI as ‘pests’ and ‘corrupt’ which he would kick them out of “los Pinos” (the presidential residence). Now he refers to Ernesto Zedillo as the ‘excellent president’ and ‘statesman’, and, he also refers to his excellent economic politics, leading to him planning with him the finances of the country for 2001. He does not appear to want to ‘kick out’ anyone from “los Pinos”, but, rather he appears to be inviting those whom he has called ‘bad governing’ to collaborate with him. Or, he is being very diplomatic (a feature not characteristic of him during his campaign) to ensure a transition without conflict since he still does not have presidential power. Or, he lied to the Mexicans who gave him their vote.

Fox promised economic growth of 7.5% in the first year of his government; but, now he announces that this will be not be possible until the first half of his term. He promised 1 350 000 jobs per year and an immediate doubling of the budget for education. Now, according to Ernesto Derbez, ex-functionary of the World Bank and present advisor to Vicente Fox, this will be impossible to accomplish. In addition, he promised that he would take the army out of Chiapas in fifteen minutes.

Thus, while some emphasize that the political economy of Fox will be oriented toward international credit institutions and the politics of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund; others place emphasis on the benefits of his new political project that he says will include the possible disappearance of some secretariats, new ways of designing his cabinet to allow independence from political pressures, changes to the structure of the Armed Forces, changes to police bodies, etcetera.

Given the change in power that has finally arrived, for some people the criticism of the new government is taboo or the height of intolerance and blindness. In place of criticism, they demand that everyone support the change. However, it is no less true that we have had our fill of electoral promises. Moreover, the way to support the change is to remember the hopes that made it possible, and, to not lose the historical memory or the desire of the Mexican people for a more just and inclusive economic project and for a new relationship between the State and society.  Fox’s victory and defeat of the PRI does not signify excusing him of everything; on the contrary, it is necessary to strengthen social control and monitoring over his actions. The changes that we are going through are not a concession of power by the presidents, but a victory for all society and its struggles, that have been fought at the cost of lives lost and many acts of violence and repression in the country.

Acronyms: Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), Partido de Acción National (PAN), Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM), Partido del Trabajo (PT), Partido Sociedad Nacionalista (PSN), Partido Democracia Social (PDS), Partido Centro Democrático (PCD), Partido Auténtico de la Revolución Mexicana (PARM).

Apologies to our readers: in Bulletin ‘Chiapas al Día’ No. 204, we committed the following mistakes that we now clarify: Vicente Fox is divorced and the modification to article 82 of the Constitution permitted him to contend for the presidency as the son of a Spanish mother. For his part, Manuel Cluthier died in an accident after his campaign for presidency of the republic.