After travelling more than two thousand kilometers through thirteen Mexican states, and holding 77 public and private events, the EZLN returned to Chiapas with a perhaps unexpected victory, which was related in detail by the Zapatista commanders to their bases in the Aguascalientes in Oventic, Morelia, La Garrucha and La Realidad.

The Zapatistas' journey, and their participation in the Chamber of Deputies, is an extremely significant event because it is unprecedented, not only in Mexico but also in the the rest of the world, for an armed organization to speak in the arena where the laws of the country are debated and passed. Its significance lies not only in this, but also in the large impact it has had on various actors and levels of society. It managed, among other things, to confer on the Chamber of Deputies the reponsibility for approving the COCOPA Bill for Indigenous Rights and Culture, and at the same time, it placed the Chamber at the very centre of the quest for political transformation in Mexico, by requesting that it be the seat of the renewal of dialogue with the federal government. This will radically change the form of the dialogue and the actors that take part. What is not expected to change much in relation to San Andres is the dialogue agenda.

The Zapatistas managed to break out of the military circle in Chiapas, despite the fact that the army has maintained in the entity more than 260 military positions all around the zapatista zone, with the aim of immobilizing, wasting and cornering it. Within the context of strengthening strategic relations and finding a political solution, they "jumped the barrier" and managed to travel through 13 Mexican States under civil protection, which which they mobilized a number of prominent social figures and consolidated a correlation of forces which led to the Chamber of Deputies' doors being opened. At the same time, they secured the release of more than 90 of their prisoners; and achieved the withdrawl of at least five of the seven military positions stationed near the Aguascalientes. As part of the whole process, the positions existing within the Indigenous National Congress (INC) united. The same phenonomen occured among the various political parties and, except for the PAN and some members of the PRI, they finally formed alliances which enabled the Zapatistas to speak in front of the Chamber of Deputies. It could be seen that the Legislative was no longer subservient to the Executive Power. As part of the mobilisation of the different actors, the political repositioning of various national figures was speeded up in the face of two large-scale initiatives currently in the political arena, which are totally contradictory since they represent quite divergent interests. These are the COCOPA Bill on Indigenous Rights and Culture, and the Puebla-Panama Plan, which is a part of what will be the American Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), along with other commercial agreements which make up the macroagreements.

Within this repositioning, President Vincente Fox, in his first 100 days of government, sought to position himself with regard to national and international opinion. He declared war on drug-smuggling, imprisoned a number of corrupt state officials, dismantled some of the crime gangs and  networks involved in the smuggling of undocumented workers to the United States, and facilitated the entry of international observers and the return of foreigners who had been expelled during the Ernesto Zedillo regime (Michel Chanteau, Loren Riebe, the Italians expulsed from Taniperlas etc.). He disactivated some 30 military road-blocks in Chiapas, allocated funding for indigenous organisations in Chiapas, and tried to avoid confrontation with the ELZN, all the time calling Subcomandante Marcos "my friend", etc. In this context, he could not let the Zapatista march go unnoticed and decided to incorporate it into his repositioning plan. With this Fox strengthened himelf politically, and went as far as to push for the Zapatistas' participation in the Chamber of Senators, and to call for the COCOPA Bill to be passed. This led him into confrontation with his own political party, the PAN, with members of the PRI, and with some entrepreneurs who were opposed to making "too many conessions to the ELZN".

These acts must be credited as positive, but on other occasions Fox fell into the trap of adopting the same style as ex-president Zedillo, insisting systematically on a meeting with Subcomandante Marcos, when the solution to indigenous problems, the approval of the COCOPA Bill, and the search for a solution to the Chiapas conflict does not lie in the meeting of two people (Marcos and Fox), but in a real dialogue that leads to the resolution of the problems that gave rise to the armed conflict in the first place, and which are part of the national political agenda. For this reason, the Zapatistas are demanding the accomplishment of three signs that will demonstrate the government's desire to find solutions, and the latter thus has the opportunity of rebuilding the confidence that was totally destroyed under previous governments. The challenge is that the main actors, within both the ELZN and the Government, "reach a fair, serious and responsible level of dialogue and negociation which will enable us both to obtain a dignified solution to a problem. This in turn will enable us to send to the rest of a world a clear sign that dialogue is the best course to take in resolving conflicts. It not only avoids bloodshed, but also it has to be built with other people. The message for other armed groups would be very clear" (Subcomandante Marcos).

At the moment, it is expected that during the coming week, the PAN, the PRI and other parties in the Federal Congress will approve the COCOPA Bill, but with some modifications. The passing of the bill has led to a show of rejection from traders, stock-breeders and some members of the PRI in Chiapas, who say that they want to be heard in the Congress, just like the Zapatistas.

If we add to this the release of the 11 remaining Zapatista prisoners recognised by the COCOPA and the Minister of the Interior, Santiago Creel; and the withdrawl, announced by the federal government for the end of this week, from the military positions of  Río Euseba and Guadelupe Tepeyac, where the army-occupied land will be converted into Centres for Social Development, then the three signs needed for the renewal of dialogue will have been accomplished. That being so, the renewal of dialogue is almost a fact. What remains to be settled is the seat of dialogue (the ELZN, through the voice of Comandanta Esther called, in the Tribune of the Chamber of Deputies, for the renewal of dialogue to take place there); the rules and proceedings of the negociations will also have to be defined, along with the agenda (through the voice of Comandante Tacho, when he spoke in front of the Congress, the EZLN took up again the three tables remaining from the San Andres agenda: Democracy and Justice, which was suspended during the second phase, Well-Being and Development, and Indian Women).

When the latest events are analysed, everything seems to suggest that the main actors in the negociations will be the ELZN and the Federal Government representatives. With the naming of  César Yánez, (whom the Zedillo government considered to be one of the most important leaders of the ELZN, and Comandante German), as messenger for the ELZN before the govenmental Comisioner for Peace, Luis. H. Alvarez, it may be supposed that there will not by any mediation, and that the COCOPA will continue to play the role of aide for questions of operations, logistics, security and relations with the Chambers of Deputies and Senators. For the moment, the ELZN has returned to silence and to the strengthening of its forces and local bases in preparation for what is coming, and has pinned its hopes on the passing of the COCOPA Bill.

In view of what has been done so far by the two main actors in the conflict, it can be said that the EZLN, Fox's government, the Chamber of Deputies and Mexican society have won;  however, bit by bit Fox has been frittering away his gains and his subsequent rise in popularity by trying to impose his Fiscal Reform, which seeks to increase VAT on medecine, education fees, books, food and so on to 15%. This project has attracted a whole series of opposition, both from political parties including the PAN, the PRI, the PRD, and from intellectuals, Catholic Church circles and various secrors of society. Previously, the newspapers were filling their front pages with pictures and  mobilisation of support for the Zapatista  movement. Today, these pages are taken up with protests against the tax reform and its debate, as it is expected that a large chunk of society will be affected by the reform. Protests have been increasing, so much so that discussion and passing of the reform in Congress has had to be put back until a later parliamentary session, between September and December of this year, in the hope of better conditions.

The government of Chiapas and the new situation.

It is still too soon to evaluate Pablo Salazar's government in Chiapas, but what can be acknowleged is the action taken up to now. The work has not been easy and there are both positive and negative results in the government's quest to establish and position itself. Among the acts which have contributed to the peace process, the following can be considered: the release of 84 prisoners belonging to EZLN bases; the protection of the ELZN caravan after the Red Cross International Committee declined to participate; negociations and dialogue with businessmen, local power groups, the Mayor of Tuxtla and the group of "Autenticos Coletos" (San Cristobal right-wing pressure group) who threatened to attack the Zapatistas and set up road blocks; the television and radio coverage of the caravan; the fact that the replacement of magisterial leadership was allowed to take place peacefully, which resulted in the triumph of the democratic current; the reaching of agreements allowing peaceful solutions with peasant groups in possesion of land taken by force; the calm negociation of licences for taxis and collective transport with transport groups; the search for a peaceful resolution to the problems of the "displaced people" in Chenalhó. These actions are a clear indication of the government's claim to resolve situations in such a way as to avoid the need for violence. Nevertheless there are a series of situations beyond its reach and control, and which have shown up in situations fraught with risks and political instability.

The state government's work is being carried out amid an accumulation of hopes of peace and a readjustment of forces which have caused a resurgence of political violence due to the resistance to change, which has been forthcoming from the State Congress, the Supreme Court of Justice in Chiapas, and has extended to the communities. This has hampered the passing of the 2001 budget in the Local Congress and is making it  more difficult for  the present government to fuction efficiently because it does not have the resources needed to do so.

There are readjustments within the State Congress, where a group of 12 PRI deputies have joined forces with the local government while others claim to still remain faithful to the PRI party lines, and seek to continue controlling the spaces still within their ambit, namely the Supreme Court of Justice, where the dispute is over who should be President; the CNC (Peasant National Confederation), for the state leadership and the problems which have arisen in some municipal councils and communities over the election of candidates for the post of mayor, which has resulted from the loss of power at state and national levels; and the positions maintained by the three political factions within the PRI: the one led by the present state party leader, Mario Carlos Culebro, that of Sami David and the one led by Germán Jiménez Gómez. In this sense, two types of violence have broken out afresh in Chiapas, political violence and delinquency and drug-smuggling.

To these contradictions within the PRI, which have deviated into acts of violence, should be added the taking of land by some peasant organisations who think that now that there is a democratically-elected governor, they  will  not be reprimanded (as is the case with the OCEZ in Venustiano Carranza, the MOCRI, the CIOAC and others); the mobilization of peasants demanding settlements over land seized earlier, which the previous goverment refused; the case of small-holdings like El Zapotal and el Horizonte in Chilón; El Desengaño, San José, El Cascajal, El Relleno, in Carranza; Cuatro Milpas in Tapachula; Moxviquil in San Cristóbal; Km. 4 in Tuxtla Gutiérrez. These conflicts have led the state government to set up a coordination of special tribunals for immediate reaction, composed of representatives from the Office for Public Security (Seguridad Publica), the State Public Prosecution, and the State Office of the Interior. In the case of Venustiano Carranza, the tribunal threated to use force if the peasants did not remove themselves from the land. There are instances where force has been used against social movements, as in Ixtapa, Tapachula and Tuxtla, and these have had a negative impact in social organizations, so that some of them are beginning to confront the new government. In face of all this it must be recognised that some of  the present government's problems were inherited from the previous government, but it has to deal with them as well as with its own problems, and look for alternative solutions.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that while state government sources are declaring that there is no more  land available for distribution, the demonstrations and road-blocks that mobilised peasant organisations on 10th April, in commemoration of the 82nd anniversary of the assassination of  Emiliano Zapata, demanded among other things the handing-over of land, the release of political prisoners incarcerated during the PRI regime, but also for the release of some prisoners incarcerated under the Pablo Salazar government, as is the case of the peasants from the Peasant Liberation Alliance, in Ixtapa.

If we add to this the cases of delinquency that have occurred in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Tapachula, El Bosque, Montecristo de Guerrero, San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Simojovel, Comitán, Ocosingo, Frontera Comalapa, among others, then Chiapas appears to be the seat of a new type of violence, where the inhabitants feel insecure. There is a resurgence of fear, of the population taking justice into its own hands, and it can not be denied that we are seeing the beginnings of a social decomposition, provoked by ancestral problems but also  as a result of the fall in coffee and maize prices, and the permanent migration from rural areas  to the town, but also in direction of the United States.

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